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6 thoughts on “Is This Overconfidence Bias?”

  1. Very Interesting.

    I think most soldiers believe they will be the ones who will survive. I have read that during an invasion, the soldiers were told that 1/3 of them would probably not make it. The typical response was, “sorry for my buddies who won’t make it.”

  2. I would be interested in hearing how the information was presented to the pilots to assess whether there are framing effects as well. Kahneman & Tversky’s research suggests that when scenarios are framed about losses, people are more likely to accept risks.

    In general, I think I would answer your question “it’s both”. When I discuss biases in my classes, I cite Gigerenzer’s research that biases often lead to good decisions (otherwise, they wouldn’t be so prevalent). Experts often make decisions based on rapid, biased processes but become experts because they know when they shouldn’t use them. So, a military pilot must be “overconfident” because surviving comes from having taken good risks & probably learning from them. But, their fundamental personality must include some preference for accepting & desiring risk that make the job intrinsically rewarding as well, so this becomes part of the selection process for military pilots.

    1. It wasn’t presented to them as a research study – it was really happening. So there was no control. I am sure everyone was told in a different way. Or just one major in the front of a crowded tent. So hard to say.

  3. I read of a study done by Don Moore’s in Carnegie Mellon on the experienced degree of control people feel compared to the actual level of control they have . The level of control people actually have and their experienced level of control are indirectly proportional; the more the actual control, the less experienced. The study concludes that people generally don’t have the sense to objectively analyze how much influence they actually have. Considering the desperate circumstances in the war, the pilots probably had very limited control over the mission’s outcomes and based on the study, their confidence (or overconfidence) seems to have been derived form an intrinsic tendency.

    I fly regularly in a C-130 / CN-235 for S/R and cargo drop missions as an armorer. And though I very rarely risk my life, if at all, I must agree that believing I have much control over my fate on the aircraft makes every flight a little more comforting.

  4. If the analysis drops down through psychology into the actual structural mechanics of the way so-called ‘intrinsic motivation’ is triggered, then a grounded explanation is possible for why the motivation and seeming bias arises. It is all to do with the physical differential that’s formed between [self-now] and [could-be] through the person’s imagined visualisation of themselves in possible future situations (Easterley in draft). As Senge says, “It’s not what the vision is, it’s what the vision does…” (1992, p.). There is a physical reason for why those pilots would feel pulled towards the seemingly less rational decision. Researchers who attempt to explore decision-making rationale by wanting to eliminate or ignore this aspect are being perhaps a little too ‘overconfident’ in their approach.

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